Sunday, December 17, 2006

Google (GOOG) - a good buy and stealth online shopping play.

GOOG -- Currently consolidating big recent move after last EPS report. I have recently added some GOOG back that I sold between $496-506. Stock could still fall farther but for those with no position, the recent sell-off is an opportunity to buy an initial position. The prior all time high around $475 should serve as fairly solid support, while $445-455 would be an area of even stronger support. I will add more at this lower level, should the stock trade there.

If the Hedge/Mutual Fund community undergoes a bout of performance anxiety through year-end, then I would expect GOOG to be a primary stock for those wanting more NASDAQ exposure. Additionally, the next time GOOG moves through $500, I firmly believe that number to serve more as support level than resistance.

Most talking heads mention names like EBAY, AMZN & AAPL, along with the big box retailers as the way to play this year's strongest online Christmas season ever. However, the best/easiest way to play this explosive year for online shopping may just be Google. GOOG is getting a lot of search action, combined with solid keyword pricing -- all this bodes well for the Christmas season.

Bottom line, the GOOG will benefit from the biggest online shopping season in history and all this only serves to strengthen the numbers for the upcoming quarterly report in mid-late January.

Many price targets are out there for GOOG, as analysts like to play the -- I've got the highest price target game. For a more useful trading target(weeks to months), a realistic range given a strong Jan. EPS report and continued strength in deal flow would be the $560-580 range. This would represent a 12-16% move above $500, after re-taking that level. At this higher range, I would be more apt to use a trailing stop, sell a partial position or use some covered calls to protect downside in the name.

Long GOOG

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