Stock serving up a major short fry today on announcement of significant Chinese Broadband contract. Not sure I would chase RBAK today but I do think the stock will trade into the $20's over the next couple qtr's.
One by one, stocks in this group are getting walked up and all the while T/BLS merger is still on hold and thus large spending being held back -- also contributing to overly negative analyst sentiment.
I see the finalization of T/BLS as a potentially major positive catalyst for stocks in this group. RBAK included.
Long RBAK -- though I did trim some today. Will buy the shares back on a 5-10% pullback from sale price in the $17.40's.
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Redback (RBAK) -- serving up a short fry!
Posted by Forged at 11:01 AM 0 comments
CREE selling too much... Stock respresent good value under $18.50.
CREE down almost 14% on lower guidance. CREE tends to exhibit lumpy performance from qtr. to qtr. This tends to present opportunities a couple times a year to both buy it on negative news.
CREE has a very good balance sheet and longer term growth should remain solid yet somewhat unspectactular. However, even at $20-21 CREE was not priced for high current expectations.
Do a quick look at the stats link on YHOO finance shows CREE with $208mm in cash or $2.70 per share. This seems great, but a closer look at the balance sheet shows a total cash combined s/t & l/t investments of over $400mm -- or over $5 in cash and investments.
Long CREE
Posted by Forged at 6:55 AM 0 comments
Wednesday, December 06, 2006
SEAC -- Another good qtr. telco/cable infrastructure.
SEAC -- nice qtr., very strong growth. VOD(video on deamand) is in a stunning growth phase currently. Like OPTM, SEAC is another unique player that sells into both the Telco & Cable equipment space.
While SEAC doesn't have the most peerless balance sheet in the space, it's still pretty darn good. I would encourage a good view of the actual balance sheet as SEAC has solid cash, short term investments as well as long term investments -- with no debt. At less than 2 times both P/B and PSR the stock is still quite cheap as long as growth continues -- as mgmt has indicated on the conf. call. Plus there is just enough of the shares currently short to make future price action interesting.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SEAC
I think SEAC is poised to benefit from still emerging growth of VOD programming, new revenue streams and a softening of overly negative sentiment in their industry group.
Long SEAC
Posted by Forged at 2:42 PM 0 comments
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
OPTM follow-up...
Very solid call with lots of analyst interest. Growth will continue to be very strong as guided for the next qtr. This company is in a somewhat unique position to be selling into both the telecom & cable market place.
While it's always hard to judge a recently IPO'd stock, this company could be a solid investment (though high risk) -- for the next few qtr's. Though I would look to buy on days of market related weakness.
Long OPTM
Posted by Forged at 2:13 PM 0 comments
OPTM's first qtr... So far so good.
Great rev. numbers from OPTM (114% growth YOY), solid profits and guidance as well. Going to listen to call. This could be an exciting stock over the next few weeks/months.
OPTM has recently IPO'd and competes in the JDSU/CIEN fiber optics group. While looking expensive currently at around 7 times sales, on a run rate basis off of next couple qtr's the stock is selling at approx. 4 times sales which is fairly closely aligned with other comp's in group.
Great group dynamics currently. This is one of my favorites sectors currently.
Stock spiking nicely AH's.
Long OPTM
Posted by Forged at 10:40 AM 0 comments