CIEN call is so solid. There is no way I'm selling CIEN shares
until the stock is at least 10-15 points higher. Stock still well off
year highs, with much of damage still being felt from the post R/S (reverse split)
sell-off. Stock was selling between $27-31 ahead of last qtr's call
and before R/S announcement. The R/S muted how strong last qtr's
result and call actually were.
They beat and guided higher but the R/S stole all that thunder -- baring the R/S the stock probably would have traded 5-10% higher on last qtr's strength to the $32-35 range assuming post split pricing. This also assumes zero lift from the strong general market. CIEN has produced results in line with other top tech performers like AAPL, yet their stock has fallen huge since R/S. Now profitability is solid and while each qtr. could still be lumpy I
would look for CIEN to post stunning YOY EPS growth for at least 2 years.
If I was NT CSCO TLAB or ALA there is no way I would let CIEN remain
independent. If I was a short, there is no way I would stay short this name.
I added shares ahead of the call and during the call -- moreover, CIEN was
already a substantial core holding. The 200 day MA is at $28.36 and if
CIEN breaks that level, I may add trading shares in and around that level.
Technically, the stock is passing through the 90 day MA currently and
historically that has had a very high correlation with continuing performance for CIEN.
Lastly, analyst cov. is still hugely negative with 19 of the 24
analysts rating the shares a hold or lower. Only 1 strong buy on CIEN
currently, which is simply amazing after 4-5 qtr's in a row showing improvement. At this point, that analyst negativity should change for the positive in the coming weeks. IMO, CIEN should trade substantially higher during 2007.
Long CIEN
until the stock is at least 10-15 points higher. Stock still well off
year highs, with much of damage still being felt from the post R/S (reverse split)
sell-off. Stock was selling between $27-31 ahead of last qtr's call
and before R/S announcement. The R/S muted how strong last qtr's
result and call actually were.
They beat and guided higher but the R/S stole all that thunder -- baring the R/S the stock probably would have traded 5-10% higher on last qtr's strength to the $32-35 range assuming post split pricing. This also assumes zero lift from the strong general market. CIEN has produced results in line with other top tech performers like AAPL, yet their stock has fallen huge since R/S. Now profitability is solid and while each qtr. could still be lumpy I
would look for CIEN to post stunning YOY EPS growth for at least 2 years.
If I was NT CSCO TLAB or ALA there is no way I would let CIEN remain
independent. If I was a short, there is no way I would stay short this name.
I added shares ahead of the call and during the call -- moreover, CIEN was
already a substantial core holding. The 200 day MA is at $28.36 and if
CIEN breaks that level, I may add trading shares in and around that level.
Technically, the stock is passing through the 90 day MA currently and
historically that has had a very high correlation with continuing performance for CIEN.
Lastly, analyst cov. is still hugely negative with 19 of the 24
analysts rating the shares a hold or lower. Only 1 strong buy on CIEN
currently, which is simply amazing after 4-5 qtr's in a row showing improvement. At this point, that analyst negativity should change for the positive in the coming weeks. IMO, CIEN should trade substantially higher during 2007.
Long CIEN
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