Sunday, December 17, 2006

3Com (COMS) -- update, earnings coming. Stuck in show me mode again.

3Com continues to be mired in deep value stock -- or better yet, show me stock purgatory.

EPS report is coming on the 20th this week, Wednesday after close. While I am disappointed that COMS has traded 15-20% lower since their announcement of buying the remaining stake of H3C -- I am not surprised.

Mr. Market was clearly hoping for a liquidity event for COMS, as a couple private equity shops were bidding for the JV.

However, I still hold shares of COMS as I feel that the upcoming 1-3 qtr's will show impressive growth out of the H3C. Core COMS may also contribute improved performance and near term the details of the financing for the H3C's purchase could contain positive news.

I do view COMS as more of a trading stock than a stock to invest for the long term. However, current valuation, combined with some near term potential catalysts makes the shares appealing under $4.15 -- as a run to the $5.10-5.50 level seems probable within a 3-6 months.

I may add to my position ahead of the call, and would certainly increase my stake if COMS were to sell off to the $3.85 level after the call. Though I am not expecting a material sell-off from current levels.

Long COMS

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