Thursday, September 27, 2007

Latest Minyanville.com post -- AMZN (Amazon)

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=14250

As the article states, I prefer GOOG, YHOO & EBAY currently to AMZN on a relative value basis. For internet retailing specifically I think EBAY offers a better blend of valuation and financial engineering opportunity.

As stated, I think YHOO is quite undervalued and the Alibaba IPO could be a prime catalyst to move the shares higher.

While I'm still quite bullish on tech longer term I've reduced exposure this week and will look to reload exposure if we get some early October weakness through the preannouncement period.

Position in GOOG YHOO

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Monday, September 24, 2007

Link to GLW article on Minyanville.com

Bendable Fiber May Lead To Corning's Breakout

GLW has reaffirmed numbers to the high end of guidance for the qtr. With multiple catalysts coming in 2008 the current targets by analysts may well prove conservative.

Position in GLW

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

AVNX & OPLK present compelling value in the optics space.

AVNX and OPLK have both seen large declines this year. These stocks showed some good momentum last year and have still been producing solid revenue growth. In OPLK's case the EPS results have been solid as well. AVNX is still fighting their way back to free cash flow and positive EPS generation.

Both names have been mired in the multi-year slump along with JDSU. However, CIEN & EXFO have both shown strong runs of late. Primarily due to industry strength and the fact that these stocks have started translating their strong revenue growth into strong EPS growth.

AVNX just purchased assets from the former KEYW (Essex) and I believe this could be a boon for them. I still need to do some digging but if they bought the technology from (Essex), that I think they did, this could help be another growth area for AVNX. Northrop (NOC) bought KEYW for their truly superior fiber security technology and AVNX may have just picked up some assets that was being developed for the non-government market.

Meanwhile, OPLK has purchased OCPI. OCPI had not exactly set the world on fire. But, OPLK bought them out for an approximate net price of about $70mm or about 1 times sales. The total purchase price was around $185mm, less $120mm in cash and investments. OPLK has since declined since this purchase but it looks like a pretty cheap way to increase capacity and sales.

I have felt for some time that this "new" fiber optic build" will be a multi-year fiber build. If this is the case then many names in this space will be viewed as secular growth stories instead of cyclical inventory rebuilding trades. This would translate into a massive difference in the PSR (price to sales) valuation characteristics for many names. CIEN is in the midst of such a transformation currently.

So far the broad investing world has largely ignored much of this renewed spending across many global networks (VZ, BT, China and others). However, the world may be waking up to this. For one thing the iPhone launch could highlight this trend. AT&T's network needs a lot more investment in their core and wireless networks -- as many issues with the iPhone are coming from problems with T's network and activation issues. T now has a very strong incentive to improve their network and materially increase their bandwidth capacity.

So while billions have been spent globally over the last couple years, billions more is on the way. And maybe the iPhone launch will provide the catalyst that draws attention to this trend that I think this investment thesis deserves.

Bottom line, many global builds point to a lot more spending -- and I haven't even mentioning a gigantic government contract that has been partially announced with T, Q, VZ all being announced as bandwidth providers, with more announcements to come.

What if, all the billions put into networks in the last two years is the tip of a multi-year iceberg... In some cases, I do think some large builds (at their core network) are possibly a good deal complete -- VZ being a good example. But how many states is VZ up and running in to full capacity? Not very many.

Further, the cable co's have at least a good 2-3 year upgrade cycle build now in front of them. Qwest has barely started spending money yet on their network. LVLT's is the only network (I'm aware of) not needing a lot of money thrown at it. But they are still investing and buying more assets -- mainly to build out more video bandwidth.

My last purchases of AVNX were at and below the $1.75 level, and I'm considering adding more here under $1.90. OPLK sitting on $180mm plus in cash and investments -- or more than half their market cap also looks compelling after the recent sell-off.

Position in AVNX OPLK CIEN JDSU LVLT