Thursday, December 07, 2006

Redback (RBAK) -- serving up a short fry!

Stock serving up a major short fry today on announcement of significant Chinese Broadband contract. Not sure I would chase RBAK today but I do think the stock will trade into the $20's over the next couple qtr's.

One by one, stocks in this group are getting walked up and all the while T/BLS merger is still on hold and thus large spending being held back -- also contributing to overly negative analyst sentiment.

I see the finalization of T/BLS as a potentially major positive catalyst for stocks in this group. RBAK included.

Long RBAK -- though I did trim some today. Will buy the shares back on a 5-10% pullback from sale price in the $17.40's.

CREE selling too much... Stock respresent good value under $18.50.

CREE down almost 14% on lower guidance. CREE tends to exhibit lumpy performance from qtr. to qtr. This tends to present opportunities a couple times a year to both buy it on negative news.

CREE has a very good balance sheet and longer term growth should remain solid yet somewhat unspectactular. However, even at $20-21 CREE was not priced for high current expectations.

Do a quick look at the stats link on YHOO finance shows CREE with $208mm in cash or $2.70 per share. This seems great, but a closer look at the balance sheet shows a total cash combined s/t & l/t investments of over $400mm -- or over $5 in cash and investments.

Long CREE

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

SEAC -- Another good qtr. telco/cable infrastructure.

SEAC -- nice qtr., very strong growth. VOD(video on deamand) is in a stunning growth phase currently. Like OPTM, SEAC is another unique player that sells into both the Telco & Cable equipment space.

While SEAC doesn't have the most peerless balance sheet in the space, it's still pretty darn good. I would encourage a good view of the actual balance sheet as SEAC has solid cash, short term investments as well as long term investments -- with no debt. At less than 2 times both P/B and PSR the stock is still quite cheap as long as growth continues -- as mgmt has indicated on the conf. call. Plus there is just enough of the shares currently short to make future price action interesting.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SEAC

I think SEAC is poised to benefit from still emerging growth of VOD programming, new revenue streams and a softening of overly negative sentiment in their industry group.

Long SEAC

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

OPTM follow-up...

Very solid call with lots of analyst interest. Growth will continue to be very strong as guided for the next qtr. This company is in a somewhat unique position to be selling into both the telecom & cable market place.

While it's always hard to judge a recently IPO'd stock, this company could be a solid investment (though high risk) -- for the next few qtr's. Though I would look to buy on days of market related weakness.

Long OPTM

OPTM's first qtr... So far so good.

Great rev. numbers from OPTM (114% growth YOY), solid profits and guidance as well. Going to listen to call. This could be an exciting stock over the next few weeks/months.

OPTM has recently IPO'd and competes in the JDSU/CIEN fiber optics group. While looking expensive currently at around 7 times sales, on a run rate basis off of next couple qtr's the stock is selling at approx. 4 times sales which is fairly closely aligned with other comp's in group.

Great group dynamics currently. This is one of my favorites sectors currently.

Stock spiking nicely AH's.

Long OPTM